Interactive Explainer · March 2026
US vs Cuba: "I Can Do Anything I Want"
Trump's latest salvo reignites one of the Western Hemisphere's most volatile standoffs — even West Asia burns in a war that began with a US-Israel joint strike on Iran.
Six slides. Six decades of tension. From Fidel Castro's revolution to Donald Trump's Oval Office remarks in 2026, this explainer traces how a small island 90 miles from Florida became America's longest-running geopolitical flashpoint.
US vs Cuba
Cold War
Donald Trump
Fidel Castro
Regime change
Oil blockade
Sources: Reuters, New York Times, The Guardian, UN Human Rights Office
The flashpoint · 2026
Trump's Oval Office Broadside
Words that few US presidents would have dared say out loud — delivered at a signing ceremony.
On Monday, March 2026, Donald Trump told reporters he expected to have the "honor of taking Cuba — taking Cuba in some form." He added: "I can do anything I want with it."
"We're going to do Iran before Cuba" — Trump, aboard Air Force One, signalling Havana is next in a queue of geopolitical targets.
Source: Reuters / Air Force One pool report
Behind the scenes
Even as Trump spoke, the New York Times reported that removing Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel from office is a stated US objective in ongoing bilateral talks — making this less a negotiation and more a regime-change agenda with paperwork.
Economic warfare · 2025–2026
The Fuel Stranglehold
Before the rhetoric, Trump tightened the screws — and 10 million Cubans felt it in the dark.
Trump halted all Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and threatened tariffs on any country that sold oil to the island. Cuba says it has not received an oil shipment in three months. On Monday, the entire national electric grid collapsed.
10M
Cubans in the dark after grid collapse
3 mo.
Without an oil shipment
60+
Years of US trade embargo
UN response
A UN panel of human rights experts described the fuel blockade as "an extreme form of unilateral economic coercion" that violates international law.
Historical context · 1959–1991
How the Cold War Made Cuba America's Obsession
Ninety miles from Florida. Half a century of proxy conflict, failed invasions, and nuclear brinkmanship.
1959
Fidel Castro overthrows US-backed Batista government
Cuba pivots toward the Soviet Union, alarming Washington at the height of Cold War paranoia.
1961
Bay of Pigs — CIA-sponsored invasion fails catastrophically
1,400 US-trained Cuban exiles captured within three days. A humiliation for the Kennedy administration.
1962
Cuban Missile Crisis — the world holds its breath
Soviet ballistic missiles deployed on the island. 13 days. Nuclear war averted after US pledges not to invade Cuba.
1962
Full trade embargo imposed by US
Still in force today — one of the longest-running economic sanctions in modern history.
Modern era · 2014–2026
Thaw, Freeze, and Escalation
Obama opened the door. Trump slammed it — twice.
Obama era (2014–2016)
Historic normalisation. Embassies reopened. Trade restrictions eased. The first US president to visit Cuba in 88 years.
Trump 1st term (2017–2021)
Obama gains reversed. Cuba re-designated as state sponsor of terrorism. Travel and remittance restrictions tightened.
Trump 2nd term — 2025 onwards
Goes further than any predecessor. Fuel blockade. Regime-change objectives embedded in bilateral talks. Open talk of "taking" Cuba. Senate Democrats file a war powers resolution to block military action without congressional approval.
Cuba's President Díaz-Canel confirmed talks were underway but called the process "sensitive" — conducted "with seriousness and responsibility."
Analysis · March 2026
Three Possible Paths
Diplomacy, coercion, and force are all on the table. History suggests none of them are clean.
Negotiated deal
Cuba makes political concessions; US lifts economic pressure. Unlikely given Havana's rejection of regime-change demands.
Sustained coercion
Blockade deepens. Population suffers. Government digs in. The most probable near-term scenario.
Military escalation
Trump's rhetoric goes further than any predecessor but faces legal, congressional, and international constraints. Senate Democrats' war powers resolution signals a fight ahead.
For now, Cuba's government is negotiating, its people are rationing fuel, and a US president is publicly declaring he can "take" a sovereign nation.
Sources: Reuters, New York Times, The Guardian, UN OHCHR · March 17, 2026